Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS64 KFWD 151742
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (20-30%) for isolated severe thunderstorms
  Thursday and Friday evenings for portions of North and Central
  Texas.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend and early next
  week with some severe weather possible.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through next week, with
  daily highs largely remaining in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/

A deepening low currently moving across the Northern Plains and
into the Midwest has attempted to push a cold front into our
northwestern counties today. This attempt has not been terribly
successful as a strong mid-level ridge currently dominates across
the Gulf. North and Central Texas sits along the northern
periphery of this ridge despite gradually shifting off to the
east. While the influence of this ridge is slowly waning, the
overall lack of large scale forcing will lead this cold front to
stall out somewhere along a line between Comanche and Sherman.
This will line up with the approximate placement of the dry line
this afternoon. A weak and subtle upper-level disturbance will
also contribute to additional lift along the Red River. As of the
12z FWD sounding, a stout capping inversion is in place with
southwesterly winds continuing to advect warm air overhead. On top
of this, dry mid-level air will work against any precipitation
reaching the ground. So far, a few showers and thunderstorms have
developed but have remained sub-severe. With all of that being
said, there is at least a conditional threat for a couple of
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening, although confidence
is not terribly high for this activity. The strongest storms that
develop will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging wind
gusts late this afternoon into the evening. This narrow timeframe
for conditional thunderstorms will remain limited to our
northeastern counties where most features seem to align the best.
Any activity will come to an end as the sun sets.

Slightly better chances for more isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms may be realized through Friday afternoon and
evening with much better alignment of the dry line and stalled
cold front. Large scale subsidence will also be considerably
weaker as the mid-level ridge traversing the Gulf continues to
move further to the south and east. We will also have better
forcing as a southern arm of the deepening low across the Midwest
swings south into the Southern Plains through Friday evening. This
will increase the potential for isolated to widely scattered
severe thunderstorms, which will most likely pose a threat for
large hail and damaging winds along and east of the I-35 corridor
through late Friday evening. The tornado threat appears low
through the period, but may be enhanced through the overnight
hours due to the low-level jet ramping up across the region.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night into Next Week/

Any leftover activity from Friday evening will quickly weaken and
dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A warm and humid
airmass will be left behind in their wake, which will help to
contribute to the next round of thunderstorm activity on Saturday.
A shortwave trough will quickly eject out of the Desert Southwest
amid zonal flow aloft, racing toward the Central Plains through
Saturday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be quite
destabilized with surface based CAPE values upwards of 4,000-4,500
J/kg with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Strong capping
is expected initially on Saturday morning, but this will likely
erode quickly as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave
passing by to our north. The dry line will also be in place,
serving as an additional focus for thunderstorm development
through the early to late afternoon hours on Saturday. The severe
threat appears to be greatest through this timeframe, with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There is a low but
non-zero tornado threat as well which will be worth watching.
Once again, all activity will wind down through the late evening
and overnight as the shortwave departs from the region. The best
placement for the activity on Saturday will be along and east of
the I-35 corridor and upwards toward the Red River. A similar
pattern will continue through Sunday with another round of severe
weather expected across portions of North and Central Texas. The
main threats once again will be large hail and damaging winds,
with a low tornado threat too. Storm mode through the weekend will
favor discrete supercells to small clusters which will attempt to
move off of the dry line each afternoon and evening. Stay weather
aware this weekend!

A period of active weather appears to continue through the start
of next week with a couple more days of dry line activity possible
on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is a bit more
uncertainty regarding this activity but the severe weather threat
looks to continue for at least a couple more days. Above normal
temperatures will also continue with highs in the 80s and 90s
through much of next week and even into next weekend.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...North flow, low VCTS potential, AM MVFR potential.

The main concern through today will be the exact placement of the
dry line and stalling cold front that will be approaching the D10
airspace through the early afternoon. Where exactly the front
stalls out will dictate north flow, although winds should remain
generally below 10 knots. Occasional variability in the wind
direction may be noted through the afternoon and evening with
stronger gusts upwards of 20-25 knots nearby virga. Any severe
thunderstorm potential should remain to the north and east of the
terminals through the evening, with impacts mainly limited to the
Bowie and Bonham cornerposts. South flow will return overnight
but will be worth watching as the stalled cold front attempts to
move across the D10 again tomorrow afternoon. MVFR ceilings will
briefly return overnight into tomorrow morning. Additional
potential for VCTS to the east of the terminals will bear watching
as well tomorrow evening, outside of the period.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  74  92  73  91 /  20   5  20  10  40
Waco                92  75  93  74  94 /  10   5  30  10  30
Paris               86  73  88  68  87 /  20  20  30  20  30
Denton              85  70  92  68  90 /  20   5  20  10  40
McKinney            88  73  91  70  89 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dallas              90  75  92  73  91 /  20   5  30  20  40
Terrell             90  74  90  72  90 /  10  10  30  20  30
Corsicana           91  76  92  75  93 /  10  10  30  20  30
Temple              93  74  95  73  96 /  10   5  20  10  20
Mineral Wells       87  68  93  68  93 /  20   5  10   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$